Google and Deloitte predict a 60% increase in the number of international travelers by 2040.

The tourism sector has shown remarkable resilience after the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2023, the sector reached 88% of the results compared to the level from the period before the pandemic, but it should be emphasized that Europe, North and South America have fully recovered and recorded better results, while stagnation was recorded in Asia and the Pacific.

This is the conclusion of the study "Travellers and destinations of the next generation: our vision of the transformation of the tourism industry", jointly developed by Google and Deloitte, which analyzes the development of the sector since 1990 and predicts how it will continue to develop until 2040.

Tourism sector, driver of economic growth

The tourism sector experienced strong growth from 1975 to 2019. During this period, the number of international arrivals worldwide roughly doubled every 15 years, reaching almost 1,5 billion travelers worldwide.

This growth contributes to the development of countries and creates numerous advantages. Thus, in the period from 2011 to 2019, the growth rate of tourism was 5%, while the growth of the global economy was 3%. From 2016 to 2019, tourism created one out of every ten jobs worldwide, and from 2014 to 2019, one out of every five new jobs came from tourism. In addition, the sector also influenced modernization, foreign direct investment...

The study reveals that European countries are the main source markets. However, from 2010 to 2019, Africa and APAC (Asia-Pacific) exceeded average growth (8% and 6,8% respectively, compared to an average of 4,8%), outperforming Europe (3,8%) . On the other hand, the APAC region generated around 215 million new outbound trips in the last ten years (43% of the total), positioning itself ahead of European countries. Likewise, in 2019, China moved up to number one in the source market rankings, joining the leading group of Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom and Russia.

Europe leads the list of destinations, although in the period from 2010 to 2019, the average growth was surpassed by the APAC region and South America (4,2% compared to 6,7% and 5,2%, respectively). Since 2010, the most visited countries - France, Spain, USA, Italy and China - have maintained their position and market share.

Vision of the future of source markets and destinations until 2040.

We are in the midst of an economic, social and technological transition that will lead to a new scenario where transformation will be essential to ensure success in the future.

1. Exponential technologies
2. The changing passenger
3. Cultural and social movements
4. Business transformation
5. Climate changes
6. Economy, politics and power

It can be concluded from the study that the future evolution of departures at the global level will continue to depend largely on the evolution of the middle class population. The analysis estimates that by 2040 the number of trips will continue to increase, reaching 2,4 billion. Between 2019 and 2040, Africa and the Americas will be the regions with the highest projected annual growth rate.

The Asia Pacific region will account for the majority of incremental outbound departures between 2019 and 2040 (over 312 million, 33% of the total), followed by European countries (over 282 million, 30%). However, over the next 20 years, fragmentation in gaining market share is expected due to growth in North America and the Middle East.

Due to increased travel frequency, the five largest source markets (China, United States, Germany, United Kingdom and Russia) will increase their market share to 42% of outbound departures (34% in 2019). On the other hand, Pakistan, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and Mexico are expected to enter the top 15 countries with the highest growth in outbound departures, driven primarily by the rise of the middle class.

In terms of foreign arrivals, from 2019 to 2040 European countries will take the largest share with more than 362 million incremental tourists between 2019 and 2040 (38% of the total), followed by the APAC region, which will exceed 278 million incremental tourists (30%).

By 2040, the top five destinations are likely to reduce their market share to 20%, compared to 30% in 2019.

Spain, France, the United States and China will retain their position in the top 5, while Italy will drop to sixth and Mexico will move up to fifth. Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and the UAE could enter the top 15, and European and APAC countries will continue to grow below.

In the future, 45% of global travelers will concentrate on four key destinations: the Mediterranean, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and the Caribbean.

See the entire study at links.

Author of the cover photo: Cameron Casey Pexels.com