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The tourism industry looks forward to the new year 2024 with confidence. There are already signs of strong holiday demand, especially for the coming summer months. The German Tourist Association (DRV) expects moderate sales growth of 4%, compared to the previous year, for the vacation and private travel market with at least one night. Citizens are expected to spend a total of 78 billion euros on tourist services that they book before the start of their annual vacation - both on package deals from tour operators and on individually tailored trips.
"In particular, long-distance travel will experience a noticeable increase", the DRV president expects Norbert Fiebig. This estimate for the new tourism year 2023/24, which began in the travel month of November 2023, is based on a new market forecast developed by DRV together with industry experts.
According to industry experts, the mid-haul eastern route – with destinations in Turkey and Greece – will remain one of the drivers of growth in the German passenger market throughout the year. "Turkey is already one of the destinations with the highest demand for German tourists when it comes to package deals for 2024.", Fiebig said. DRV expects an overall positive development of long-distance travel compared to the previous year - with an increase in the number of passengers of 11% and an increase in sales of 18% in the summer travel half-year.
"Many long-distance travel destinations such as the USA, Australia, Thailand or Indonesia have only gradually recovered from the corona pandemic", said the president of DRV. Therefore, catch-up effects can still be expected in the long-distance travel segment - even if they are influenced by domestic economic factors and the associated uncertainty among consumers.
The majority of the population will not give up traveling
For the whole year, DRV expects a slight decrease in the number of passengers despite the increase in sales. Already in 2023, fewer people traveled with tour operators than before the pandemic, but according to experts, the expected decline this year will not be as strong as in 2023. However, it is not yet possible to predict how the federal government's planned increase in air travel taxes will affect prices and thus demand. At the time of the forecast, details were not yet available.
DRV President Fiebig sees the planned increase as a social issue, especially for families with children who have average incomes: "It is clear that many German citizens can no longer afford to travel on holiday due to the increased costs."
Nevertheless, experts are sure that the majority of the population will not give up traveling. This is also indicated by the previous reservations of tour operators for the summer season of 2024. They are already significantly more than last year and the pre-pandemic year of 2019. Germans book their vacations for the summer months much earlier and take advantage of the offers of tour operators with which they can save money.
The reason for the possible decrease in the number of passengers in the current year: general price increases, especially for fuel, heating and food, burden many household budgets. In general, experts suspect that everyone travels less overall or saves on the length of stay per person and household. It is likely that more households will concentrate on one or two major vacation trips. Data on reservations indicate - and experts' estimates point in this direction - that vacation and recreation trips will decrease significantly in the current winter season, but high demand is expected in the summer. The decline could therefore have a slightly greater impact on the individual travel market for destination destinations mostly travels by car.
Source: DRV
