EN
HR
At the opening press conference of the CMT tourist fair in Stuttgart, Prof. dr. Martin Lohmann presented the initial assessment of the travel year 2022 and talked about the development trends for the holiday year 2023. As it is our main broadcast market, the focus is always on Germany.
For the purposes of the CMT 2023 fair, Vacation and Travel Research Association (Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen eV - FUR) compiled the first preliminary tourism balance sheet for the year 2022, in which tourism trends in the new year were also identified.
2022: Tourism picks up speed again
International tourism has grown significantly in 2022. Worldwide, the number of international guest arrivals is expected to be around 920 million according to FUR estimates, after 448 million in 2021 and 409 million the year before. In 2019, according to UNWTO data, the comparative value was 1,47 billion guests.
The volume of international tourism is currently approximately the same as it was in 2010. However, in Europe, values were almost at the level of 2019.
According to the German Federal Statistical Office, in Germany, in the first ten months of 2022, the number of overnight stays increased significantly, compared to the same period of the previous year, and reached 394 million (+137%). For the entire year 2022, approximately 456 million overnight stays can be counted on in Germany, after 310 million in 2021.
German vacation trips in 2022.
Regarding travel for vacations, based on provisional data based on RAonline which were available at the end of the year, FUR expects a growing level of demand for 2022, with a volume of approximately 63 million vacation trips, compared to 2021 million in the previous year 55,1. The expected number of short vacation trips (lasting two to four days) is 80 million, which is +70% compared to the previous year, and -16% compared to 2019.
During the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, the number of vacation trips and short vacation trips was significantly lower than in 2019. However, it is not that Germans did not travel at all - in 2022, the values approached the pre-corona level.
Initial conditions for 2023: Many are already planning their trips
Tourism demand indicators in 2023 reflect a tense economic situation. With regard to the expected general economic development, Germans are more pessimistic than they were a year ago.
Two-thirds expect things to get worse in this regard. Personal economic development is also rated worse: 17% of respondents (last year it was 22%) expect that their personal economic situation will improve in a year. 42% (previous year 24%) fear the situation will worsen. The remaining 41% do not expect any changes. t
The individual economic situation, which many perceive as critical, is not a good initial prerequisite for vacation tourism in 2023. But it turns out that travel plans are still at a high level.
Four out of five Germans (83%) were already thinking about vacation trips in 2023 in November. Whether someone will actually go on a trip is a matter of opportunity - that is, time and money - and desire. The respondents were directly asked about it, and it turned out that a high 54% wanted to travel for vacation. At a high level of 66% is also the time factor. But when it comes to money, the situation is different: the majority of respondents (54%) are sure that there will be money for vacations in 2023 as well, but 23% doubt that they will be able to afford a vacation trip in 2023. About 11% are surely he won't be able to or probably won't be able to.
When asked about specific prospects for travel, 12% answered that they had no intention of traveling at all. However, 69% of the population plans one or more vacation trips. As a result, the intensity of holiday travel in 2023 would be higher than in 2022.
In line with the current economic challenges, more and more Germans want to reduce the cost of holiday travel this year – 17% of them to be exact, compared to 5% last year. But financial worries are by no means burdening everyone in such a way that it affects their travel: 23% of those surveyed want to spend more this year (previous year: 15%).
Vacation trips were and remain an indispensable part of the quality of life for most Germans. However, the prerequisites for its fulfillment are not evenly distributed in society.
Vacation trips in 2023.
The overall picture of leisure travel in 2023 will be similar to the one before the corona pandemic - both in terms of travel destinations and by types of travel. This is supported by the expressed preferences. That is why vacations in Germany will remain at the top of the list of destinations in 2023. Spain, Italy, Turkey and Austria follow. Croatia and Greece, according to estimates of trends identified through RA 23/RAonline surveys from November.
It is estimated that the total volume of tourist trips by German-speaking residents will be approximately 65 million.
It is also clear that numerous tourist offers are attractive to tourists. Travelers want multiple choices, they have more desires and interests than could fit into one trip a year. This basically ensures demand but increases competition in the industry. A sign of flexibility in demand is the fact that 44% of respondents plan to visit a destination this year that they have not been to before.
Tourism will continue to develop dynamically. Changes come mainly as a result of the development of framework conditions and tourism offer, for example in the areas of sustainability, technological changes and human resources. Annual vacation trips and the well-being of travelers will continue to play an important role in society and the economy in the future,
Source: ReiseAnalyse
Cover photo: Pixabay
